SKYMET FORECASTS A “HEALTHY NORMAL” MONSOON
Forecast of the year:
It says the monsoon this year is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average.
This year the monsoon will be little less than the above normal mark.
The impact of events like EL-NINO are little less this year.
Presently, the apcific ocean is in the LA-NINA phase which is expected to weaken in the coming month and will increase again in monsoon month.
The Indian Ocean Dipole which is characterised by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, is expected to be slightly on the negative.
It is a private weather forecast company.
It was the first private sector entity which provided weather forecasts and weather graphics to the Indian media in 2003.
Long Period Average:
Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall received over a period of 50-year between 1951 and 2001. This average for India is 88 cm of rainfall.
Monsoon months from June to September are taken for calculating this average and this average is also kept as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year.
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale which are as follows:
Normal or Near Normal: if the variation of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, that is, between 96-104% of LPA then that is considered as normal/near normal.
Below normal: if the variation in actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, that is 90-96% of LPA then that is considered as below normal.
Above normal: if the rainfall in a year is 104-110% of LPA.
Deficient: if the actual rainfall in a year is less than 90% of LPA.
Excess: when the actual rainfall in a year is more than 110% of LPA.
Incompetent weather forecasts:
In 2019, Skymet forecast below normal rainfall and the IMD “near normal”. In defiance of these calculations, India po