Forecast of the year:

• It says the monsoon this year is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average.

• This year the monsoon will be little less than the above normal mark.

• The impact of events like EL-NINO are little less this year.

• Presently, the apcific ocean is in the LA-NINA phase which is expected to weaken in the coming month and will increase again in monsoon month.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole which is characterised by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, is expected to be slightly on the negative.

About Skymet:

• It is a  private weather forecast company.

• It was the first private sector entity which provided weather forecasts and weather graphics to the Indian media in 2003.

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Long Period Average: 

• Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall received over a period of 50-year between 1951 and 2001. This average for India is  88 cm of rainfall.

• Monsoon months from June to September are taken for calculating this average and this average is also kept as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year. 

• Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale which are as follows:

  • Normal or Near Normal: if the variation of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, that is, between 96-104% of LPA then that is considered as normal/near normal.

  • Below normal: if the variation in actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, that is 90-96% of LPA  then that is considered as below normal.

  • Above normal: if the rainfall in a year is 104-110% of LPA.

  • Deficient: if the actual rainfall in a year is less than 90% of LPA.

  • Excess: when the actual rainfall in a year is more than 110% of LPA.

• Incompetent weather forecasts:

  • In 2019, Skymet forecast below normal rainfall and the IMD “near normal”. In defiance of these calculations, India po

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