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Forecast of the year:

  • It says the monsoon this year is likely to be 103% of the Long Period Average.

  • This year the monsoon will be little less than the above normal mark.

  • The impact of events like EL-NINO are little less this year.

  • Presently, the apcific ocean is in the LA-NINA phase which is expected to weaken in the coming month and will increase again in monsoon month.

  • The Indian Ocean Dipole which is characterised by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, is expected to be slightly on the negative.

About Skymet:

  • It is a  private weather forecast company.

  • It was the first private sector entity which provided weather forecasts and weather graphics to the Indian media in 2003.

Long Period Average

  • Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall received over a period of 50-year between 1951 and 2001. This average for India is  88 cm of rainfall.

  • Monsoon months from June to September are taken for calculating this average and this average is also kept as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year. 

  • Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale which are as follows:

    • Normal or Near Normal: if the variation of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, that is, between 96-104% of LPA then that is considered as normal/near normal.

    • Below normal: if the variation in actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, that is 90-96% of LPA  then that is considered as below normal.

    • Above normal: if the rainfall in a year is 104-110% of LPA.

    • Deficient: if the actual rainfall in a year is less than 90% of LPA.

    • Excess: when the actual rainfall in a year is more than 110% of LPA.

  • Incompetent weather forecasts:

    • In 2019, Skymet forecast below normal rainfall and the IMD “near normal”. In defiance of these calculations, India po

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