World Bank growth forecast for India

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News: The World Bank has reduced its forecast by 0.7 points from October to a 6.3% economic growth rate for India in the current fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2024.

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Reasons for this forecast:

• High borrowing costs and slower income growth cause weaker consumption.

• Government tightening fiscal expenditure.

• India fared better than the rest of the South Asian region, However, two major concerns were the female labour participation rate, which had dropped to below 20%, and the informal sector neither becoming more productive nor shrinking.

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South Asia Economic Focus Report

• World Bank released South Asia Economic Focus: Expanding Opportunities: Toward Inclusive Growth Report, 

• As per the report, The services sector and then the construction sector was the fastest-growing industries in India.

• Investment growth remained strong and business confidence was high in India.

• The World Bank forecast for Sri Lanka this calendar year was -4.3% (i.e., a contraction) and for Pakistan was 0.4% for the year ending June 30, 2023.

• Pakistan is negotiating the release of a $1.1 billion tranche of a larger $6.5 billion bailout package with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has been delayed. 

• Sri Lanka negotiated a $3 billion loan from the IMF at the end of March and is hoping to secure further financing from international institutions.

 

Need:

• a huge structural change in India to make growth more inclusive to increase participation.

• private investment from abroad needed to be increased, especially in the services sector

• The government needs to increase opportunities in the labour market.

 

Asian Development Outlook

News: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slashed its growth projection for India for 2023-24 sharply, from 7.2% estimated earlier, to 6.4% in its Asian Development Outlook report.

 

Reasons:

• Global economic slowdown, 

• Tight monetary conditions, and 

• Persistently elevated oil prices.

• ADB said domestic consumption demand is likely to stay healthy, and private investment growth is likely to be lower this year due to high lending rates and moderating optimism on business conditions.

 

About the News:

• The Bank has forecasted India’s real GDP growth in 2022-23 at 6.8%.

• A slight uptick in growth has been forecasted growth will inch back up to 6.7% in 2024-25.

• As per the report, the ongoing recovery in China and healthy domestic demand in India will be the main growth support pillars for the entire region for the next two years.

• Between 2015 and 2019, India’s contribution to GDP growth in Developing Asia was 22% while China’s contribution was 53%, ADB estimates suggest.

• China still accounts for about half of the region’s growth, but its contribution will decline, from 51% this year to 46% by 2024-25.

• India’s contribution to developing Asia’s growth is expected to rise to 27% by 2024-25 from an estimated 25% in 2023-24, 

• South Asia will remain the best-performing sub-region this year, driven by robust growth in India which should register high growth both this year and next year,”.

• While private investment is expected to falter this year, public consumption this year is “likely to grow only slowly, as central government expenditure shifts toward investment,” ADB said.

 

India Justice Report

News:  India Justice Report (IJR), 2022 was released which suggested Indian courts are jammed with cases and are seeing pendency increase by the day. 

The report is prepared by DAKSH, Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, Common Cause, Centre for Social Justice, Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy and TISS-Prayas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About the report

• Fewer judges than the sanctioned number.

  • As of December 2022, against a sanctioned strength of 1,108 judges, the High Courts were functioning with only 778 judges. 

  • The subordinate courts were found functioning with 19,288 judges against a sanctioned strength of 24,631 judges.

• Rising pendency

  • the number of cases pending per judge is rising in most States over the past five years as the sanctioned strength largely remained the same.

  • High Court:

    • Uttar Pradesh has the highest average pendency; cases remain pending for an average of 11.34 years, and in West Bengal for 9.9 years. 

    • The lowest average High Court pendency is in Tripura (1 year), Sikkim (1.9 years) and Meghalaya (2.1 years).

• Higher Caseload

  • The number of cases a judge has to deal with has steadily increased. Between 2018 and 2022.

  • The caseload per judge increased in 22 States and Union Territories, the report said.

• Case clearance rate (CCR)

  • It refers to the number of cases disposed of in a year measured against the number filed in that year, is a common metric used to determine the rate at which cases are disposed of. 

  • A CCR of more than 100% indicates that the number of pending cases is reducing. 

  • As per the report, High Courts are clearing more cases annually than the subordinate courts. 

  • Between 2018-19 and 2022, the national average improved by six percentage points (88.5% to 94.6%) in High Courts but declined by 3.6 points in lower courts (93% to 89.4%).

  • Tripura is the only State where the CCR in district courts remained above 100%.

  • “In 2018-19 only four High Courts had a CCR of 100% or more. 

  • The High Courts of Kerala and Odisha have higher case clearance rates  156% and 131% respectively.

  • The High Courts of Rajasthan (65%) and Bombay (72% ) have the lowest case clearance rates

• Court halls:

  • Nationally, the number of court halls appears sufficient for the number of actual judges, However, space will become a problem if all the sanctioned posts are filled.

  • “In Delhi, West Bengal, and Uttarakhand, there were no court halls for the 86, 82, and 35 serving judges.